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Was the pandemic a grey

rhino or a black swan？It was more predictable than people realize.The World in 2021ONE of the biggest lessons from the covid--19 pandemic has been the folly of ignoring warnings about highly likely, high--impact risks that are a matter of when, not if. For years, many governments brushed off countless credible warnings that the world was poorly prepared for a pandemic. When the novel coronavirus emerged in China, too many nations were too slow to respond.folly /?f?li/n. 蠢行，傻念头，蠢事

(formal) a way of thinking or behaving that is stupid and careless, and likely to have bad results

She soon realized the folly of her actions.

她 很快就意识到了自己行为的荒唐。

These facts demonstrate the folly of the policy.

这些事实显示出政策上的愚昧brush off（美国口语）拒绝听；不理睬

to bar from attention or consideration

She tried to start a conversation with him, but he brushed her off.

她试图开始同他谈话，但他不愿听。

He had never been brushed off so rudely before.

他以前从没遭到过如此粗暴的拒绝。ONE of the biggest lessons from the covid--19 pandemic has been the folly of ignoring warnings about highly likely, high--impact risks that are a matter of when, not if. For years, many governments brushed off countless credible warnings that the world was poorly prepared for a pandemic. When the novel coronavirus emerged in China, too many nations were too slow to respond.新冠肺炎疫情的最大教训之一，是忽视关于极有可能、高影响风险的警告，这只是时间问题，而不是是否会发生风险的问题。多年来，许多政府对无数可信的警告置之不理，这些警告称，世界对一场肺炎疫情准备不足。当新型冠状病毒在中国出现时，太多国家反应太慢。The pandemic should encourage policymakers to pay more attention to other known but poorly managed risks. These include rising inequality, climate change and financial imbalances such as dangerous corporate--debt levels and asset bubbles. 这场疫情应该鼓励决策者更多地关注其他已知但管理不善的风险。这些问题包括日益加剧的不平等、气候变化和金融失衡(如危***债务水平和资产泡沫)。Picture each of these obvious dangers as a two-tonne grey rhinoceros with its horn pointed our way and its massive weight bearing down on us: they are very visible and their impact can be foreseen. The interactions among these rhinos heighten the danger. You could appropriately call them a crash—the zoological term for a group—of grey rhinos.rhinoceros /ra??n?s?r?s/n. 犀牛

a large heavy African or Asian animal with thick skin and either one or two horns on its nose

bear down on冲向…，向…逼近

to move in a threatening way towards someone or something

I looked up to see the car bearing down on me.

我一抬头，看见那车辆正向我冲过来。Picture each of these obvious dangers as a two-tonne grey rhinoceros with its horn pointed our way and its massive weight bearing down on us: they are very visible and their impact can be foreseen. The interactions among these rhinos heighten the danger. You could appropriately call them a crash—the zoological term for a group—of grey rhinos.想象一下，当一头两吨重的灰色犀牛用角为我们指路，巨大的重量压在我们身上时，这些显而易见的危险逐一出现:它们非常明显，它们的影响也可以预见。这些犀牛之间的相互作用加剧了危险。你可以恰当地称它们为灰犀牛群——一个动物学术语。Politicians, pundits and investors often invoke the metaphor of the "black swan" to describe highly improbable, even unimaginable events. In particular, the global financial crisis of 2007--09 is often described as a black--swan event, despite warnings about derivatives and a subprime housing--market bubble. pundit /?p?nd?t/n. 行家；权威；专家

a person who knows a lot about a particular subject and who often talks about it in public

Political pundits were tipping him for promotion.

政界权威在向他提供晋升方面的咨询。invoke /?n?v??k/v. 提及，援引（某人、某理论、实例等作为支持）

to mention a person, a theory, an example, etc. to support your opinions or ideas, or as a reason for sth.

She invoked several eminent scholars to back up her argument.

她援引了几位赫赫有名的学者 来支持她的论点。derivative /d??r?v?t?v/n. 派生物，提取物，衍生物 something that has developed or been produced from something else

This isn't an entirely new car, but a new derivative of the Citroen XM. 这不是一款全新的车，而 是雪铁龙 XM 系列的派生车型。Politicians, pundits and investors often invoke the metaphor of the "black swan" to describe highly improbable, even unimaginable events. In particular, the global financial crisis of 2007--09 is often described as a black--swan event, despite warnings about derivatives and a subprime housing--market bubble. 政客、权威人士和投资者经常用“黑天鹅”(black swan)这个比喻来描述极不可能、甚至不可想象的事件。特别是，2007-09年的全球金融危机经常被描述为黑天鹅事件，尽管对衍生品和次贷房地产市场泡沫发出了警告。By definition, black swans cannot be predicted, so nothing can be done to prepare for them. This kind of thinking makes things worse by encouraging fatalism, rejecting accountability and giving the nod to short--termism and wilful ignorance, which in turn generate volatility and tail risk. To face the looming risks of 2021, we must replace black- swan fatalism with grey--rhino constructive pragmatism.wilful /?w?lfl/ adj. 故意的；任性的；固执的 (of something bad) done intentionally or (of a person) determined to do exactly as you want, even if you know it is wrong

The present crisis is the result of years of wilful neglect by the government. 当前的危机是该政府 会多年来故意忽视的结果。By definition, black swans cannot be predicted, so nothing can be done to prepare for them. This kind of thinking makes things worse by encouraging fatalism, rejecting accountability and giving the nod to short--termism and wilful ignorance, which in turn generate volatility and tail risk. To face the looming risks of 2021, we must replace black- swan fatalism with grey--rhino constructive pragmatism.根据定义，黑天鹅是无法预测的，所以我们无法为它们做任何准备。这种想法会让事情变得更糟，因为它鼓励宿命论，拒绝问责制，认可短期主义和故意的无知，而这反过来又会产生波动和尾部风险。面对迫在眉睫的2021年风险，我们必须用“灰犀牛”建设性实用主义取代“黑天鹅”宿命论。As covid--19 spread, analysts quickly downgraded their early pandemic predictions of a fast V--shaped recovery to a slower U- shaped recovery, and then to an even more gradual "swoosh". We now have a k--shaped recovery that has given the well--to--do a big boost, creating financial-asset bubbles while essential workers and vulnerable sectors struggle.swoosh /swu??/ n. 闪电形（或彩色条形）标记（或图案） an emblem or design representing a flash or stripe of colourk--shapedadj. K 型的the well--to--do n. 富人 people who are richAs covid--19 spread, analysts quickly downgraded their early pandemic predictions of a fast V--shaped recovery to a slower U- shaped recovery, and then to an even more gradual "swoosh". We now have a k--shaped recovery that has given the well--to--do a big boost, creating financial-asset bubbles while essential workers and vulnerable sectors struggle.随着covid-19的传播，分析人士迅速将他们早期对大流行的快速v型复苏的预测下调为较慢的U型复苏，然后再下调为更渐进的“逆转”。我们现在有一个k型的复苏，给了富人一个巨大的提振，制造了金融资产泡沫，而关键的工人和脆弱的部门却在挣扎。In 2021 the global economy will suffer from a ripple effect of bankruptcies, job losses and defaults, which stock-markets cannot ignore for ever. At the same time, increasingly violent storms, droughts, wildfires and freak weather will threaten insurers, property, coastal cities and, by extension, financial stability.ripple effect涟漪作用，连锁反应 a situation in which one action causes another, which then causes a third etc.

The increase had a ripple effect through the whole financial market. 整个金融市场起了连锁反应， 都在上升In 2021 the global economy will suffer from a ripple effect of bankruptcies, job losses and defaults, which stock-markets cannot ignore for ever. At the same time, increasingly violent storms, droughts, wildfires and freak weather will threaten insurers, property, coastal cities and, by extension, financial stability.到2021年，全球经济将遭受破产、失业和违约的连锁反应，而股市不能永远忽视这些。与此同时，越来越猛烈的风暴、干旱、野火和反常天气将威胁到***、房地产、沿XX市，进而威胁到金融稳定。Facing the daunting challenges ahead will require long--term thinking, a greater emphasis on the real economy rather than stock-market performance and, above all, a commitment to hold ourselves and our leaders accountable. But it also presents new opportunities.daunting /?d??nt??/adj. 令人气馁的，令人发怵的 (= intimidating) discouraging through fea 内容过长，仅展示头部和尾部部分文字预览，全文请查看图片预览。 arn from experience, so that once the epidemic strikes again, we won't be well prepared. In this regard, we need to face up to COVID-19 and the black swan, believing that COVID-19 is not a real black swan, but a "grey--rhino ". In the long run, the real economy will support the stock market valuation through dividends and helping enterprises grow. Otherwise, any policy aimed at keeping the stock price high will fail.Thank you.The World in 2021[文章尾部最后500字内容到此结束,中间部分内容请查看底下的图片预览]请点击下方选择您需要的文档下载。

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