纽约时报:关于新型冠状肺炎疫情的3个关键性问题外刊精读

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4 1. How contagious is the virus? It seems moderately infectious, similar to SARS. The scale of an outbreak depends on how quickly and easily a virus is transmitted from person to person. While research has just begun, scientists have estimated that each person with the Wuhan coronavirus could infect somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5 people without effective containment measures. That would make the new virus roughly as contagious as SARS, another coronavirus that circulated in China in 2003 and was contained after it sickened 8,098 people and killed 774. Respiratory viruses like these can travel through the air, enveloped in tiny droplets that are produced when a sick person breathes, talks, coughs or sneezes. These droplets fall to the ground within a few feet. That makes the virus harder to get than pathogens like measles, chickenpox and tuberculosis, which can travel a hundred feet through the air. But it is easier to catch than H.I.V. or hepatitis, which spread only through direct contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person. If each person infected with the Wuhan coronavirus infects two to three others, that may be enough to sustain and accelerate an outbreak, if nothing is done to reduce it. Here’s how that works. In the animation below, a group of five infected people could spread the virus to about 368 people over just five cycles of infection. Compare that with a less contagious virus, like the seasonal flu. People with the flu tend to infect 1.3 other individua 内容过长,仅展示头部和尾部部分文字预览,全文请查看图片预览。 onal Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Dr. Fauci cautioned that it could still take months, and even years, after initial trials to conduct extensive testing that can prove a vaccine is safe and effective. In the best case, a vaccine may become available to the public a year from now. [文章尾部最后300字内容到此结束,中间部分内容请查看底下的图片预览]请点击下方选择您需要的文档下载。

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